Yesterday's move up was rejected at the local 0.618 Fibonacchi retracement. Despite hitting resistance, price is consolidating sideways + Bullish CVD divergence which is a bullish sign. We also have a liquidity above $20400 which could be a magnet for price and the huge imbalance above is yet still unfilled However price is still below the POC of the range and could act as resistance and patience would be needed in order to look for longs ideally a break of the POC $18400 is local support where the value area low is located
The dollar has been unstoppable over the past year, and a test up to the 2000s highs looks inevitable. As you are all aware, the dollar strength is inversely correlated with the stock market and Bitcoin. There has been no surprise that while the stock market and crypto are getting crushed, the dollar keeps ripping to new multiyear highs. On the monthly chart, it has been up only with the dollar climbing exponentially with little to no resistance, which could mean a fast move back down when it finally hits some type of significant resistance but until then I wouldn't look to short the dollar just yet
Yesterday I mentioned how the fate of Bitcoin and altcoins in the near term will be determined by what happens in the stock market. For those new to the channel this is because both are correlated and are trades as risk on asset. Today we have the Fed meeting taking place where they will decide on how much that hike up the interest base points. Many are fearing we see a 100 basis point which in my opinion is worst case scenario and will send the stock market and Crypto tumbling. The other scenario is a 75 basis point increase which is expected by many analysts and could see stock markets and Crypto react positive. Looking at the stock market chart after last weeks price action we have a lot of unfinished business higher up and we could see these fill if there is positive outcome. If it's the dreaded 100 basis point then 3840 point support would likely break and panic will set in. One thing is for sure volatility is just around the corner
So far, the analysis has played out as expected, with price dumping after losing the daily level of support. Price is now flirting with the weekly level, and we can also assume the is liquidity located just below that $1425 weekly level. If we see the price sweep that low and it reclaims the weekly, I will begin looking for long to fill the imbalance left after yesterday's drop.
If the above scenario plays, this will give us the above trading range. If the weekly is lost and the price does not reclaim, we could see the price drop back to the $1000 zone, where we also have a monthly level. Our focus over the next few days will be on that weekly. Regardless of what plays out, we have a plan for both scenarios.
Daily timeframe - The monthly level was not hit, and upon the release of the CPI news, we saw the stock market & Bitcoin dump simultaneously. Similar to ETH, Bitcoin eventually dumped to the 0.618 Fibonacci level but not testing the value area low and Weekly NPOC. Also, the point of control is located at 50% of yesterday's dump candle, so that could be an area to pay attention to as this could be an area to look for shorts IF the price gets rejected in this zone.