2023-03-28 07:30:59
Just like every other #Bitcoin cycle, the current has it's nuances. However, I'd think we're currently trading in an environment akin to September - November 2019.
Fed in 2019:
- Cut rates 3x by October
- Began expanding balance sheet in September
Fed in 2023:
- Begin expanding balance sheet in March
- 100 bps of rate cuts are priced in by end-of-year
BTC in 2019:
- Price bottoms after moving 83% lower off the ATH and ~500 days prior to the 2020 halving
BTC in 2023:
- Price bottoms after moving 78% lower off the ATH and ~500 days prior to the 2024 halving
Consistencies between cycles are new ATHs, echo bubbles, bear markets and consolidation phases; each time these phases play out slightly differently for reasons other than price.
Some key thoughts
- Echo bubble of 2021/22 more intense as it was caused by FTX degeneracy, dwarfs the 2018 echo.
- COVID black swan price action shouldn't be replicated in this cycle... unless of course, another black swan occurs (WWIII or other?)
- If you're betting on new lows from here, it's becoming clear that you're betting on this time being different (I'll never speak in absolutes, but betting against history typically doesn't work out well)
- I'll get lots of S&P500 and NQ charts with comparisons to '08 + '00 as a response to this tweet... My take; BTC + crypto is a far more immature asset class and can price in narratives/fundamentals much more quickly than what traditional equity indexes can and will do. No better example of this than the 2022 bear, crypto is always the fastest horse, on the way up and on the way down - that's likely to continue to be the case IMO
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