#oinonen_t
An On-Chain Thesis for $100K Bitcoin
The leading cryptocurrency bitcoin has been offering exceptional returns during early 2023, climbing 69 percent year-to-date. Praeterea, the correlation between bitcoin and the technology-related index Nasdaq 100 has weakened, dropping -60 percent from October's 0,75 to the current value of 0,3.
In a bigger picture, bitcoin's market behaviour can be segmented into accumulation (turquoise) and distribution (purple) phases, which form a multi-year sequence of cycles.
Accumulation cycles have been favored by smart money (institutions), while distribution cycles have been characterized by retail demand. Bitcoin’s history is also dominated by halving events, which are preceded by pre-halving accumulation cycles (turquoise).
The shift from accumulation to distribution cycle can be forecasted by fees to reward on-chain data (yellow), which tends to spike before each distribution cycle. The phenomenon occurred in 2019 and 2020.
In the accumulation cycle of 2019, the
