2022-03-14 20:16:53
(A more serious analysis of the geopolitical situation)
The best-case scenario is an orderly change of government, which by Russian standards means poisoning Putin or showing him early retirement at gunpoint. The worst case scenario would be the disintegration of the Russian federation, because then there would be over 5000 nuclear warheads potentially held by warlords in a bunch of banana republics. I think Mr. Putler should be given an honorable exit, because if he feels cornered and humiliated, he might push the button. This is fine!
We are likely to see China come out of neutral a week or two from now, in that respect, this article is one of the best I have found.
https://uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-wei-russia-ukraine-war-china-choice/
The price of a barrel of oil continues to correct against the trend, indicating that there is hope that the conflict will not escalate further, or that there is confidence that Russian supplies can be replaced.
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