2022-06-20 17:33:26
#BTC #Bitcoin
BTC is now below its 1W MA200 for the first time since the Mar 2020 COVID crash. As I've mentioned numerous times, that has been the trend-line that marked the bottoms on both previous BTC Bear Cycles (all candles closed above).
On this analysis, I am extending analysis on the Support by adding a variety of elements:
1) The Weekly MA300, which was the level that got hit, supported the price and initiated the rally on the March 2020 COVID crash.
2) The Mayer MA, which fits perfectly on this Support Zone charting I want to make clear with the MA200 and MA300.
3) Mapping of all previous Cycles
4) The Halvings
Weekly MA300
First, it is critical to acknowledge where the Weekly MA300 is. On this INDEX BTC chart, it sits around 16590. That is way below the Top of the previous Bear Cycle (19800), which if broken it will be the first time in history. If the current Weekl candle closes considerably below the Weekly MA200, a trader should acknowledge that as a possibility. Notice however that this is the top of the Mayer MA Support Band (Blue zone), which was last hit on the Aug 2015 candle.
The Halvings can time the Bottoms
The good news come when we incorporate the Halvings on the chart. As you see, the previous Bear Cycle bottoms have been 882 and 791 days after the previous Halving for the December 2018 and the January 2015 bottoms respectively. Or alternatively 518 and 539 days before the next Halving. Right now that creates a potential Bottom Phase within the July 04 and October 03 2022 1W candles.
Weekly MA50/MA100 Cross
On top of that, there is a pattern that when formed, it basically confirms that the Cycle's Bottom has been priced. That is the Weekly MA50/MA100 Cross (when the Weekly MA50 crosses below the Weekly MA100 . I've analyzed that before but it fits very well on the current idea. If the MA50 and MA100 don't diverge from their current course, the Cross is projected to take place within the Bottom Phase as illustrated by the Halvings.
Cycle Mapping
Even though the current Cycle has been an odd one, especially when thinking about its top, which not only it didn't make a blow-off top above the upper Mayer MA Zone (red zone) but also made a slightly higher top in Nov, it hasn't diverged much from the previous ones. As you see if we divide the Bear Cycles into phases, they all tend to follow the same pattern:
a) Blue Triangle = Blow-off phase but with price still supported by the wekly MA50
b) Green Rectangle = Price consolidating, below the Weekly MA50 but supported by the Weekly MA100.
c) Orange Channel Down = Final sell-off/ price collapsing below the Weekly MA100 but finds support and contained above the Weekly MA200.
We are currently on Phase C. Whether or not BTC hits the 1W MA300 now or in a later stage of the new Bull Cycle, as it did on both previous Cycles (see red circles), that remains to be seen.
So bottom is around 16K -18k but MA 50 need to cross Ma 100 for confirmation. personally i am loading spot positions along with 50% positions in BUSD for fuckery that may come due to inflation rising higher and higher
3.3K views14:33
C
