FinTwit

2023-03-17 09:26:32 Debt saturation is not just a theoretical concept - it is happening now in many economies around the world. The signs are clear and alarming.

One of the most significant indicators is the growing reliance on new credit to pay off old debts rather than invest in productive assets. This shows that economies are struggling to generate income from productive activities and are instead relying on borrowing just to keep afloat.

Another worrying sign is the rising debt-to-GDP ratio. When this ratio becomes too high, it becomes increasingly difficult for an economy to grow and service its debt. If the debt continues to increase at a faster rate than GDP, the result can be an overwhelming financial burden on the economy.

The previous low-interest-rate environment also suggests that many economies have reached the point of debt saturation. With interest rates already at historic lows, there is little room left for monetary policy to stimulate borrowing and investment. This can trap an economy in a cycle of low growth and high debt.

Finally, a growing pattern of defaults and bankruptcies across multiple sectors is a sure sign that debt saturation has been reached. Recent collapses of major financial institutions like Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse are clear indications of the financial strain that debt saturation can put on an economy. Open / Comment

2023-03-17 09:21:13 Open / Comment

2023-03-17 07:31:31 Lot of aspiring traders think they need background in econ to trade well

Not true

Hang around some professional poker players

You’ll learn more from them Open / Comment

2023-03-15 17:32:00 It is not hard to identify where there is a bid or an offer

It is hard to hold onto trade that is working / taking loss on trade that isn’t

That’s what makes the difference Open / Comment

2023-03-15 16:07:20 Trying to predict direction is stupid

You can’t control market direction

Focus on what u can control like position sizing, entries, exits, etc. Open / Comment

2023-03-15 09:05:59 If u hesitate to enter don’t take the trade

If u hesitate to enter, you will hesitate to exit

Then if it goes against you, you will let a small loss become a big loss

Then a big loss into an unaffordable loss

Finally before u know it, your account is gone. Open / Comment

2023-03-09 18:16:51 Used car prices skyrocketing again Up 4.3%

Largest price increase in February since *2009* Open / Comment

2023-03-07 11:40:28 What is $VIX?

It is a forward looking calculation that measures how much the market participants expect the S&P500 to move in next 30 days.

The actual calculations are based on the option prices of the S&P500 Index, by combining the weighted prices of all the put and call options expiring in next 30 days. Open / Comment

2023-02-27 10:35:22 Open / Comment

2023-02-22 18:52:05 Futures trading notes laced with PSP.

1. Wait for the rebid/reoffer. Very rarely does price peak or bottom at your order and never retrade your entry price. You have a statistically higher probability of success on the rebid/reoffer.

2. Know the difference between initiative buying/selling and a stop run (impulse). Trade with the initiator and against the impulse—the impulse is the premium reversal entry and almost always right above or below stops at a key level. Be aware of #1 in either case.

3. 3 consecutive stops and you’re out. If you don’t know the flow in your first 3 trades, you’re not going to know it on the 4th trade. There's another game tomorrow, make sure you have an account to play.

4. Stay in the game no matter what. Set a daily/weekly loss limit with your broker. We are human and tilted trades will inevitably happen to all of us. Get locked out before you get knocked out.

5. At 3R (3x risk/return), you only need to be right 30% of the time to be profitable.

6. Your stop is your entry fee or cost of admission into the trade—consider this money gone & wired out of your account the second you enter the trade. If you can't come to grips with this thought, you are oversized.

7. Let your stops prove you wrong. Before entering a trade, know where your idea is invalid. If xx/yy trades, I am wrong. This is where your stops need to be.

8. Take profit, but do not move your stop (see #1). In a rebidding/reoffering market moving a stop to break-even or a few points of profit will give you just that more times than not. Lock in gains by taking profit into the uptick.

9. Withdrawal half your profits every two weeks. House money is not a thing. This will keep you earning & your account growing.

10. The next trade is the most important trade. Forget the last one good or bad. Relentless discipline and consistency will bring you up and relentless discipline and consistency will keep you there. There is no easy money—it must be earned again and again and again.

11. Not all trades are created equally. There are days when you have a read on the market and the opportunity to be right in a big way. Size up and swing the bat!

*Sizing up comes after you have established a winning process over thousands of trades.

12. Trading is binary. If the market respects your entry you stay in the trade every single time. You may get stopped out, but you always stay in the trade if the market respects your order.

13. The name of the futures game is to become a BIG scalper. 100 points MFE is cool but 3/4R on 40% of your trades is ELITE. Be ELITE. A process with positive expectancy is scaled by leverage.

14. Market is fueled by poor positioning and late speculators. When you are tempted to chase price, remember this. There is always another trade. Open / Comment