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The dollar paused for breath on Thursday, having given up a brief rally made after the Federal Reserve said it would end pandemic-era bond purchases in March and then start hiking rates (three within 2022). But the Fed was not the only game in town. The ECB and BoE (as well as the Swiss National Bank and Norges Bank) will hold policy meetings later today. “The economy no longer needs increasing amounts of policy support,” said Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sounding optimistic. Overall the Fed / Powell did a great job communicating the news and prepping the market beforehand for it. The reaction of the USD on the Fed's policy change was relatively muted (given the strong policy change) and will probably have to wait for what the ECB/BoE does (and of course, much of the Fed's hawkish turn was already priced in). I expect the ECB and BoE to take a much less hawkish stance, which could be a catalyst for the USD to continue its upward trend and rise significantly again. The EUR/USD moved back above 1.130000 during early European trading - we use the small recovery and position us SHORT.

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