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2021-03-29 10:30:49 US equity futures are selling off, led by a more than 1% decline in USA100 future, amid reports of USD 20 bln Block trades, selling of Chinese tech giants & US media firm ViacomCBS. Asian stock markets have traded mixed & Japanese indices managed to move higher. Surging virus numbers in countries such as France weigh on confidence in Eurozone economies which so far have had relatively relaxed virus restrictions. UK meanwhile is finally easing its very strict measures, against the background of a successful vaccination campaign. In FX markets Yen strengthened, USDJPY fell back to 109.46, although USD strengthened against most other currencies.

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USOIL (-2.25%) Oil prices dropped at $59.55 after the Ever Given was finally refloated, although it is still unclear when the Suez Canal will be open again. Faster MAs remain aligned lower, RSI 45 & MACD histogram & signal line clashed without clear indication yet whether this implies consolidation or support. H1 ATR 0.55, Daily ATR 2.62 Open / Comment

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2021-03-26 11:24:45 EUR & JPY pressured, Sterling, AUD & NZD higher. US stock markets higher (+0.5%), Nikkei closed +1.56%. Quarter end rebalancing & risk seeping back into markets. Good US data (Claims at 1-year lows (under 700k – this week last year 3.2 million), Q4 GDP upgraded to +4.3% & all the Fedspeak cool with the path for inflation. Gold 1730, USOil $59.60 (The Evergreen is not going anywhere soon - $10bn of global trade held up). Overnight – PBOC sees 6% growth for China in 2021, CPI in Tokyo ticks higher and UK Retail sales in line at 2.1%. Biden – 100 million vaccines in 42 days wants 200 million in 100 days, EU cases and vaccine problems persist – leaders disunited over action.

Today – German IFO, US PCE & core PCE, personal income & spending, Uni. of Michigan (final).

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.68%) Volatile week continues, big rally from 82.50 lows yesterday. Rallied to test R2 at 83.37. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 69 and rising to test OB zone.

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2021-03-25 16:08:35 The #USD and US Government Yields remain supported as markets position for the end of the month and quarter next week, following benign news from the central banks this week.

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2021-03-25 12:30:39 The sense that the US economy will lead the post-Covid recovery is strengthening, while the souring in relations between China and western nations this week remains a concern, after the US regulator revived threats to remove China's largest corporations from their bourses. This weighed on sentiment, while in Europe, the return of virus restrictions is clouding over the outlook. Vaccines remain scarce as concerns over a third wave and tighter restrictions kept a bid in bonds. Today, attention will be on the EU leaders summit as the EU Commission plans to present proposals for all vaccine shipments.

USD has posted fresh highs in a continued divergence from US Treasury yields, which have remained broadly stable over the last day. Global stock and commodity markets remain turbulent, which has been maintaining a safe haven bid for the Greenback. Biggest mover - AUDJPY (+0.45% as of 07:30 GMT).

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2021-03-24 11:21:12 US stock markets & Oil sold off as Yellen talked tax rises and Powell remained dovish. 10-yr Yields dipped again to 1.638%. EU significant worry over infections and vaccine roll-out continue weighing on EUR. Overnight – Asian stocks down, JPY data better, AUD (PMIs in line) & NZD (trade balance better) weaker, Gold $1728, USOil $58.00. UK Inflation unexpectedly drops significantly (0.4% vs 0.8%).

Today – EZ, UK & US Flash PMIs, EZ consumer confidence, Fed's Barkin, Powell, Williams, Daly, Evans, Treasury Secretary Yellen, ECB's Lagarde.

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPUSD (-0.48%) Downtrend from yesterday extended by big CPI miss – down from 1.3800 breach yesterday under S2 now at 1.3685. Faster MAs remain aligned lower, RSI 22, OS but still falling, MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower, both under 0 line from Monday. Stochs OS and flat. H1 ATR 0.0016, Daily ATR 0.6750.

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2021-03-23 11:14:37 US stock markets recover, 10-yr Yields dip under 1.69%. Existing Home sales lowest for 6 mths, Powell talked up USD-backed digital currency. Fallout from the weakening TRY limited. Biden team talk of $3tn infrastructure plan. Geopolitics ramped up again - US, EU, UK and Canada sanction various Chinese officials - China responds in kind. EU significant worry over infections and vaccine roll-out. AZ may have included outdated data in US trials. Overnight – Asian stocks mixed (China weak), NZD (spending much lower) & AUD (more flooding in Sydney – peak today?) both weaker. Gold $1740, USOil $61.00. Today – ECB gross purchases, US new home sales, NZ trade, BoJ minutes, BoE's Cunliffe, Bailey, Fed's Bullard, Bostic, Barkin, Powell, Williams, Brainard.

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-1.22%) From rejection of 35-mth high last week (79.20) closed lower on daily last night. Extended losses on intraday open this morning from 78.00 to 76.90, under S3. H1 ATR 0.1521, Daily ATR 0.6750.

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2021-03-22 11:17:15 (USDTRY up 8% now) Erdogan replaced CBRT (hawkish) chief with anti-interest rate academic - market expects a further run on Lira. Inflation 15%. JPY rallied and Nikkei slumped -2%. So far, no spill over to other EM currencies. Friday & weekend – markets flat into close, (Nas up, Dow down), VIX down 3.9%, 10-yr yields closed 1.732%, EUR 1.19, JPY 108.95, GBP 1.3860, Gold 1744 & USOIL 61.50. COT report showed JPY longs now short for first time since June, USD buying up across the board. PBOC to be “selective” with policy. Aramco’s profits down -45% (to $49bn! & will distribute $75 bn in dividends!). UK vaccinated over 50% of adults (800,000) on Saturday, AZ US trials show 79% efficacy.

Today – ECB asset purchases, ECB's Lane, Schnabel, Fed's Powell, Barkin, Daly, Quarles, Bowman.

Biggest MAIN (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.37%) Gapped lower on open this morning from 84.25 to S2 at 83.85. Retraced to S1 but back to S2 now. Faster MAs remain aligned lower, RSI 27 and falling.

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