2021-11-17 14:27:13
Market Update by GemCatcher #47 (17.11.21.)
$BTC - Bitcoin down, but it's clear the bulls don't want to give up the 58-60k zone. So far it is holding us and if there is no negative news, I stand by my opinion that I don't see dips below 58k. You have to watch the market and actually be prepared for 2 scenarios. We have a similar market behaviour to November 2017, there too there was a big correction in the middle of the month, have a look. Main scenario unchanged. Fundamentally, onchain unchanged, positive. As an interesting fact, in 2013, on November 7 we broke through the ATH of April, and on the 30th we had a bull market peak. In 2017 the whole run took a little over a month, also calmly, they have time. And in 3 days we have a full moon. Admittedly, this is not an indicator, but markets are often up during a full moon.
$ETH & ALTS - we are making lower lows and lower highs, but still in the accumulation/distribution zone. We are currently testing support as resistance. You can see that the narrative on alts has changed a bit and it's no longer the moon, just investors gently fleeing to BTC during market uncertainty. If we break through 0.069, I will be increasing my position in BTC for the final rally. In case of sharp moves, ETH and alts to BTC will lose. The key level to hold is 0.007. We are held from the top by 0.075, from the bottom by 0.07 and consolidation is taking place in this range.
LUNA/BTC we broke through the local uptrend line and are now testing it from below. UST is growing stronger every day, already $5.9B, new website, cool hype, new projects. I'm very bullish on this project for the next few months, but you have to take into account BTC's behaviour and dominance.
LTC/BTC we broke through the upside at 0.00382 but came back above and now there is a struggle. In case of a downward breakout 0.003-0.0033 zone for buying. LTC still shillable, most of my position I want to bycatch to $1000+.
Domination of BTC, USDT, DEFI - we are climbing up, currently the 44.2% level. A sizable candle up at the moment, however this is not altcoin selling into BTC, but USDT selling into BTC. What does this tell us? That investors are loading previously accumulated USDT into BTC now. So far the alts to BTC are holding up pretty well, it's clear that with strong moves they lose, but they make up for it. However, I believe that when the time comes for BTC, they will give back to the King. Will that be the case? I think we will get the answer to that question in the next 1-2 weeks, so stay tuned and flexible. USDT dominance 2.71% strong upside. DeFi domination 5.5%.
$SPX - S&P500 at this point we have a double top drawn. We will see if the correction is over or if we will see a stronger rebound. On H4 and D1 it has already cooled down.
$DXY $VIX (dollar index and S&P volatility index) - DXY strong gains, top at 96.2. Historically from November to the end of the year the index has been falling, which may create a good opportunity for crypto. We had a similar relationship in 2013 and 2017. At the end of the cycle DXY started to rise, BTC rose with it, there was a correction and final rises on BTC. DXY at that time was falling. VIX - near the low, level 16.30.
Whale - bought 1031 BTC at 60.2k.
Twitter/interesting facts: Onchain data shows distribution process has started with Long Term Holders. This indicates that there is someone to sell to, the price is satisfactory. The process can take up to several weeks, also nothing alarming.
Yesterday's declines under the news from the US, ws KYC on crypto portfolios and Mt.Gox. I believe this is media hype to drive the price down before the final leg up.
A good place to make money and catch interesting coins is Kucoin. Projects that I think are worth taking a speculative look at: SUTER, SHILL, MAP.
STT had token burning, unfortunately the price does not react positively. I'm hoping that if they do a couple of collections that actually make a lot of money, it will attract investors. Similar situation happened with POLS, DAO etc.
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