9RD Analytics

2023-01-14 15:21:14 One of our posts already had information about TVL, what this metric is and how to use it. TVL is the main metric with which to compare other financial indicators of a crypto project.
When we analyze networks that have a volume of locked funds, we use the network's fees to TVL ratio. What information can such a ratio give us?
Recall, TVL is the amount of capital raised in the network. This is the funds locked in staking and in various Dapps (if we are talking about blockchain), etc. That is, all of the assets that are currently in a particular network.

For each transaction, the network charges a fee, which is the network's revenue. It can then dispose of this revenue as it sees fit. Often networks share part of their fees with their token holders or with stackers (e.g., Curve). They can reward validators or buy their tokens off the market. This is not important in the context of this post. What is important to understand is that fees are revenue for the network.
So the Fee/TVL ratio shows how effectively the network uses the attracted capital. For example, if TVL=$1 billion and the network's daily revenue is $10000, it is easy to calculate that the efficiency equals 0.001%.
One could argue that many networks strive to set the lowest fees, and this would decrease the Fee/TVL ratio. Right, but in that case, the network should strive to increase the number of transactions.
The TVL of the two largest financial protocols, Curve and Uniswap, was $3.8bn and $3.36bn, respectively, as of mid-December 2022. That is, approximately the same. And Curve's swap volume for the year was $33.09 billion, and Uniswap's was $530.5 billion. 16 times higher! And Curve's fees revenue for 2022 was $108.8 million and Uniswap's was $780.8 million.
That's even though Uniswap's fees are higher. The conclusion is that there are reasons why Uniswap is more attractive to its customers.

P.S. The data is taken from our Curve Finance analyst report. If you're interested in getting the full report, contact @vlt99.

#TVL Open / Comment

2023-01-04 12:03:36 The Curve Finance protocol report is finished. A lot of work has been done, studied:
* the principle of the protocol
* the basic schemes of earnings in Curve
* veCRV token role
* what is Curve wars
* team
* investors
* security and audit
* Github
* protocol stats
* financial metrics
* tokenomics
* comparison with competitors - Uniswap and Pancakeswap

Conclusions were drawn, here are some of them:
1. The team is able to generate innovative ideas and develop the project.
2. At the moment Curve is a system capable of effectively generating income in the form of swap fees. Therefore, as an asset for long-term investment, the CRV token looks promising.
3. Investors inclined to long investment periods should consider participation in liquidity farming schemes either in Curve itself or in one of the protocols using its pools (Convex, Yearn, Compound, etc.).
4. A trigger for a rise in the price of CRV and speculative short-term earnings could be the release of the crvUSD stabelcoin.
5. Only after August 2024 will inflation decrease from 12-13% to 4% or less. Therefore, more active growth of CRV price is possible after the mentioned period.

#Curve #CRV Open / Comment

2022-12-29 22:19:40 Anyone want to learn cryptanalysis in practice?
DM @vlt99 Open / Comment

2022-12-23 11:36:33 Now we are studying the CurveFinance crypto-project. It is one of the most ambitious protocols we have worked on. Huge ecosystem, large number of earning strategies, great example of interconnected network of smart contracts. When we finish the report, we'll share with you some findings on Curve and the CRV token.
#curve #CRV Open / Comment

2022-12-17 14:14:27 When analyzing a crypto project, analysts study almost everything: the team, tokenomics, onchain data, the audit of smart contracts, the community. But very often they forget about the most important thing.
And what is the most important thing about a cryptoproject? The same as for an ordinary company - the product.
What product does the project in question produce? What benefits does it bring? If we put aside its promotional prospectus for investors, why do we, ordinary consumers, need it?

The answer to this question is the most important one. Because if the company doesn't have a clear product and a transparent business model, where will the profit come from? By manipulating the token? Then this project is a scam. You can take a risk and try to speculate, but it is not an investment. And if you don't get out of such a project in time, the loss of money is inevitable.

You may argue, but what about Dogecoin and other shitcoins, where traders earn x10 and x100? Of course, every rule has its exceptions. Considering that there are about 13,000 tokens today, not all of them are based on useful products. For example, there is a category of meme-coins whose value is supported solely by the holders' faith in them. In the case of Dogecoin, this is an inexplicable sympathy (or diabolical plan) on the part of Ilon Musk . But the time of the Wild West in the crypto world is gradually passing.

Only a product that people want and are willing to pay for is the basis of a successful business.
Understanding this simple concept immediately makes project analysis easier. Now we need to understand what kind of product the project offers, which customer segment it is designed for, whether there is an MVP, whether there are product sales, etc. That way we can analyze the market and the product's prospects in that market.

And only then, if we come to the conclusion that the project is not another scam, not a Ponzi scheme, can we start analyzing tokenomics and everything else.
#product Open / Comment

2022-12-07 21:55:55 An investor often has to analyze not only cryptoprotocols, but also blockchains. After all, investing in their native tokens is often profitable. Many have old blockchain cryptocurrencies in their portfolios, such as ETH, BNB, SOL. And if you need to make a decision on a lesser known blockchain? Then you need to analyze it.
Blockchain is the basis on which developers build their decentralized applications (Dapps). One of the sources of income of any blockchain is transaction fees. The more applications and the more users they have, the more profitable it is for the blockchain. As there are more transactions, the amount of fees is higher.
Therefore, by analyzing the number and quality of applications, we can understand how popular, useful and profitable a particular blockchain is.
The gold standard for the number of Dapps is Ethereum, which according to different data has about 3000-3500 Dapps. There are very many apps with billions of TVL on it: MakerDAO, Lido, Curve, Uniswap, etc. There are about 1 million transactions per day on this blockchain in 2022.

Now let's compare, for example, with the blockchain that calls itself the progenitor of Ethereum - EthereumClassic. As of December 7, 2022, there are 46 applications functioning on the blockchain, according to official data from the website. The difference is obvious. The number of transactions per day in December 2022 is 40,000-50,000, on which the blockchain earned $66-$134 per day.
EthereumClassic is chosen simply as an example to make it easier for you to understand the line of thinking. To be fair, back in April 2022, when we studied this blockchain, there were 28 applications on it. That is, in six months, that number has grown by 64%.

The conclusion is that blockchain is the baseline, the infrastructure for building applications. If there are few applications on a blockchain, it doesn't make a lot of profit, it doesn't have a lot of cash of its own, and its coin can't be worth much. It is just like in a traditional business, if a company is not profitable, its stock cannot be worth much.
The second conclusion is that such a blockchain can still be interesting for an investor if the blockchain has factors indicating growth potential. In that case, you are lucky to find an undervalued asset.
The analysis of the blockchain ecosystem is just one aspect of the overall fundamental analysis, which complements the overall picture.

#ecosystem Open / Comment

2022-12-02 20:09:32 We studied the company Jasmy. Here are the main findings and facts.
1. The company was founded by the seventh president of Sony. Although after the high-profile crashes of 2022 faith in authority is extremely low, we still want to believe that the former president of Sony would not deliberately smear his reputation with scam.
2. The company is entering a market that has already established itself as one of the most profitable: information trading. Google, the largest operator of data, including personal data, had operating income of $78.7 billion in 2021.
3. Jasmy is building a platform based on the IoT network. According to some estimates, the number of IoT devices will reach 29 billion by 2030.
4. Jasmy's products have a clear business model, and there are already the first corporate partners using them.
5. Jasmy already has partnerships with large companies, including Sony.
6. JASMY is a utility token. It's designed to serve infrastructure that will deliver real value. The token is traded on 72 exchanges.

Conclusion:
Overall, the project looks promising. It could turn out to be a very profitable investment, especially given the extremely low price resulting from the bear market. And the greatest potential of JASMY token seems to be in long-term investment. But we must remember that the risks are also quite high.
Disclaimer: N F A.

#JASMY Open / Comment

2022-11-28 23:05:08 If you invest in cryptocurrencies, then you've heard of the TWT token. Do you think it has growth potential?
Back on November 2 we said you should pay attention to this token.
https://twitter.com/Ralvero/status/1587550890575396864
So what has happened since then? On November 2, TWT's closing price was $1.17. And already on November 14, the closing price was $2.27 and the high was $2.74.
We've been watching this asset for a while now and think it's one of the favorites for the next bullrun.
Why?

The Trust Wallet story started a long time ago. And recent developments are like this.
Elon Musk took 19 companies with him on the Twitter deal. 18 of them are classic institutional investors. The only active participant of the crypto market with its own infrastructure is Binance. Twitter filed registration paperwork to process payments with the Treasury Department's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN).

Information surfaced on the internet that Twitter is reportedly working on a cryptocurrency wallet that includes support for deposits and withdrawals.
We don't know the future, but if the words Musk, Twitter, Trust Wallet, Web3, Binance will really stand together in a partnership - TWT to the moon.

In the meantime, CZ is acting:
- Killing FTX through a huge lack of liquidity.
- Disperses surviving and escaped FTX funds into Binance and Trust Wallet and penny stocks into other venues.
- Next, it provokes a cascade collapse and outflow from other exchanges in the same direction.
- And finally, strikes Coinbase, predominantly US, setting up a bucket called Trust Wallet.

The result:
-The major futures competitor is dead.
-Trust exchanges other than Binance are significantly undermined.
-Trust Wallet is taking in an additional over $30 billion in customer funds that will generate revenue for TWT.
-If the DEX sector continues to multiply, TWT becomes 1 in 1 with BNB's capitalization

Disclaimer: N F A.

#TWT #trustwallet Open / Comment

2022-11-19 18:42:24 Any blockchain team talks a lot about decentralization. That is, in other words, they all support increasing the number of validators or miners on the network. If this is indeed the case, then the barrier of entry should be low and developers should encourage it.
What does barrier of entry mean? It means that a person who wants to become a validator or a miner it won't cost very much. Mining equipment won't cost like an airplane.
Let's compare. In order to run a node, you need to invest some amount of money in staking and equipment.
Ethereum - you need 32 ETH and the cost of equipment. The number of validators is about 400,000.
Aptos - 1,000,000 APT and the cost of equipment. There are 102 validators in the network.
Solana - 0.02685864 SOL, but equipment cost will be $5000-$7000. The number of validators is about 3,400.
BNB Smart Chain - 10,000 BNB and equipment cost. There are only 21 validators on the network.
According to the documentation on the Mina blockchain, the node can be run on a smartphone. But in the spring of 2022, when we studied this blockchain, this capability was not yet technically implemented. There are only 351 validators on the network.

Even with data from several networks, it's already clear which blockchains are more decentralized. Obviously, only whales can afford to invest a few million dollars, as required in BSC or Aptos networks. And these networks are actually centralized.
This blockchain analysis will also help you see the big picture and understand if the team is really committed to putting into practice what it claims to the community.

P.S. By the way, you need to understand that the number of nodes also has a maximum effective limit. For the dissemination of information between nodes takes a certain amount of time. And the more nodes in the network, the more time it takes to update data on all nodes.

#onchain #node Open / Comment

2022-11-14 18:04:53 The year 2022 has already become one of the most frightening years for many investors and traders. The rate at which the giants of the crypto industry are falling is staggering. After Terra's fall, we thought the market had cleared the trash and would be better now. After the bankruptcy of 3Arrow Capital, we thought the market was definitely at the bottom and we would soon see a bullrun. And then FTX went bankrupt.
Many people will be disappointed in cryptocurrencies and will leave after losing money. But the strong and tenacious will stay.

But those who stay must learn important lessons.
1. There is nothing reliable about crypto. One week ago FTX or Alameda participation as an investor in a new project was a 100% guarantee that the project had a bright future. Then it turned out they had liquidity problems and Alameda Research was run by a person (Caroline Ellison) who didn't know what he was doing.
The conclusion is that any market participant - an investment fund, an exchange, a DeFi project, etc. - can go bankrupt at any time. And this is largely due to the fact that there is no in the public domain about the financial condition of such companies.

2. Crypto market is a fishbowl where every fish wants to swallow as much as it can. It's every man for himself. No one will help you but yourself.

3. Everyone has to take care of himself or herself. What does it mean to take care of yourself? You have to constantly improve your level of knowledge. If you are involved in trading or long-term investing - learn. Don't rely on other people's opinions. If you listen to other people's advice, you have to understand the logic of that person. Why does he have that particular opinion and how can it be explained? And for that you need knowledge.

4. You have to look soberly at events and opportunities, not to give in to emotions, especially to avoid feelings of greed and not to fall into euphoria in the case of success. Success in crypto largely depends on psychology.

5. Diversification is very important! And Risk Management!
Do not invest all your money in one asset. Optimal is 2-3% in one asset. 5% - if you are very confident in the reliability of the asset.
Distribute assets by type: stabelcoins, protective assets like bitcoin and ether, risky assets. Diversify each of them as well. For example, don't keep everything in one stabelcoin. Split between USDT, USDC and DAI.
Keep the bulk of your crypto assets in a cold wallet. It is better to keep only those funds on exchanges that you plan to trade in the near future. Don't keep all of your money on one exchange, you already figured that out :) The money on CEX does not belong to you, but to the exchange. For swap trading you can use DEX.

In general, you understand the principle. The most important thing - you can not trust anyone, you must always act carefully. And then over a long period of time success is possible.
Now we are more experienced, and this is the most important thing.

#riskmanagement Open / Comment