2022-12-06 17:30:40
Goldman Sachs Macro Investment Outlook 2023 - This Cycle Is Different This research from Goldmans is essential for any investors to help break it down.
Key Summary:
A 35% chance of a recession in the U.S, NOT base case but large risks on either side
The market is unlikely to reduce recession risk fully until inflation and thus tightening pressures have abated convincingly
Investors are underestimating the resilience of the U.S economy
Interest rates to peak at 5-5.25% with 125bps of hikes next year with NO cuts
U.S Core PCE (inflation) to drop to 2.9% by the end of 2023 due to goods and shelter inflation pressures declining
Disinflationary impact of normalising supply chains still has a long way to go
Investing in U.S equities might be 'frustrating' as equity upside is limited by high rates and the downside limited by continued resilience
Mild recession in Europe due to larger energy shock
Bumpy re-opening expected in China
Look out for more investment research video breakdowns this week - I hope you find it useful.
#2023Outlook
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