We bounced off the 35,000 level and moved sideways for several days around 34,000, just as I wrote in the previous post. Now a series of fundamental events could shift us from this level. The decision on the rate will be published in 35 minutes. The market has 99% priced in the scenario that the rate will remain at the same level. At the moment, I think the movement will depend more on other events, namely:
1. Coindesk analysts say that major participants in the bitcoin options market are interested in breaking through the 36,000 level. From my point of view, the scenario is logical and highly probable.
2. Microstrategy's report is coming out today at 20:00 GMT, currently they have 158,245 BTC (5.4 billion $) on their balance. If there is a significant change, the market may react.
3. Powell's press conference after the rate decision. As always, market participants will evaluate the rhetoric to understand further actions in monetary policy.
4. Tomorrow, the SEC is conducting a review meeting regarding the decision on the transformation of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust into an ETF. There could also be surprises, predicting Gensler's actions is difficult for me.
So, I will refrain from forecasting for now and will write my opinion when there is more information, but I want to let you know that a squeeze around 36,000 before the correction is very possible.
Rate decision in 35 minutes and Powell press conference in 1 hour 5 minutes.
