2023-05-24 08:54:55
The market at the moment remains flat due to uncertainties on government debt and this is holding back investors from any movements. A flat market is always characterized by demand equalling supply, and for a shift to occur, the market is awaiting some notable event. There aren't many such events this week, and it's doubtful that anything can outshine the primary issue with government debt. However, investors are keeping an eye on events, and market fluctuations may occur leading up to the decision on raising the debt limit.
Today at 18:00GMT FOMC minutes will be released and investors will evaluate the content of the May meeting, following which the regulator raised the rate by 25 basis points. As per CME Group data, the probability of maintaining a 5.25% annual rate stands at 84.7%. This means that at the moment the negative for the markets in connection with the rate is unlikely. I am inclined to flat in the near future, however, I do not exclude that if the markets see some negative in the protocols, no one will pass up the opportunity to gather liquidity at the 25,000 level. Given that a positive scenario (a pause in rate increases) is already priced, I think that it is unlikely to find something for growth in such an event. Therefore, in the near future, we only need to follow the news on debt negotiations. Presently, the support level is at 26,700, since the candle hasn't closed below this level in the past 60 days on 1D chart. The main trend remains up, the market just needs to wait out all the negative in order to continue growth.
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