Trader X - Official Channel

2021-04-02 01:44:00 Open / Comment

2021-04-02 01:43:24 Some thoughts about crypto market cycles

Ιmagine that we are at the end of 2021, Bitcoin has just hit its all-time high and is showing no signs of slowing down. Many altcoins have skyrocket to 10x and the destination is, the moon.

Is clearly in sight and now that you are so close to it, you start to realize that you never took the time to seriously think about the most important question in crypto investing. When should I sell?
Perhaps you fly past the moon and you find yourself watch in shock as all your gains get burned up

Mature markets such real estate, stocks, forex etc follow some kind of visible cycle. It can be a one-year cycle, a four-year cycle, or even a 12-year cycle. In some cases, these longer cycles contain even smaller cycles that last a few months or even a few weeks. Usually it is observed a cycle becoming longer as a given market matures.

Meanwhile, cryptocurrency market is very young and that makes it very volatile. This is simply because nobody knows for sure what the actual value of the market is.

Not only that, but cryptocurrency markets are not restricted to suit and tie traders. All you need to participate is an internet and that means a lot of inexperienced investors. This makes the cryptocurrency market even more volatile and irrational.

Despite all the daily chaos in the crypto market, when you step back you can see a somewhat clear market cycle. This cycle seems to last around four years and consists of a two-to-three-year bull market, followed by a one-to-two-year bear market depending on how you draw your indicators.

Nevertheless, all these cryptocurrency market cycles seems to be caused by the Bitcoin halving. The Bitcoin block rewards for miners are cut in half every four years. Assuming demand stays the same, the sudden decrease in supply eventually leads to a spike in Bitcoin's price. Since most altcoins are highly correlated to Bitcoin, they also see a massive swing to the upside. This explosion in value, makes it to the media which brings even more money from both experienced and inexperienced investors into cryptocurrency markets.

In contrast to the two previous cycles, in the current one, there is more smart money from financial institutions and experienced retail investors in the crypto space than ever before.

So, what is the answer to the hot question? Most people speculate that the current bull run will last till November, other assume a longer duration, till 2022, while others believe, and for good reason, that some kind of crash may take place during Summer. Think about it. Covid's overall economic situation, which includes lockdowns, restrictions to business activity, and unprecedented amounts of central bank financial stimulus to help firms and keep people working (printing fiat at its finest). As a consequence of the impact on currencies, savers and investors will be searching for safe havens as inflationary hedges. Open / Comment

2021-04-01 22:24:26 Wall Street investment bank Morgan Stanley said in a Thursday regulatory filing that a number of its institutional funds may gain exposure to bitcoin in the form of cash-settled futures or a Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust. Open / Comment

2021-04-01 03:29:51 Open / Comment

2021-04-01 03:29:36 Bitcoin - Altcoin dynamics

During the next Bull Run, the possibility of any altcoin's market cap exceeding Bitcoin's is extremely unlikely. This is due to the fact that Bitcoin is where the majority of institutional and seasoned retail investors are placing their capital. Any time soon, you won't see big businesses buying altcoin dips.

Except for Bitcoin, Ethereum is starting to gain traction among serious investors. This seems to be partly due to the imminent release of Ethereum 2.0, which has several major investors, such as Greyscale, calling ETH 2.0 a material risk to investment.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin is less volatile than altcoins, and its volatility has been slowly declining over time, as more and more holding is on the air. Furthermore, the price of Bitcoin has a huge impact on altcoins. When Bitcoin grows, so do altcoins. Many altcoins, particularly those with a smaller market cap, suffer short-term losses when Bitcoin rises too quickly.

So, ok we may have notice that but what is the reason for this? Since the vast majority of capital invested in low-cap altcoins comes from crypto rocketeers seeking the fastest route to the moon. All of us leave our altcoins and run to the Bitcoin spacecraft when we see Bitcoin take flight. Is that correct?

And when Bitcoin's popularity fades and its price plummets, everything comes crashing down. This is one of the cases where red becomes your worst color.

Nonetheless it is speculated that, when Bitcoin is steadily rising in price or trading sideways, altcoins seem to make the most profits.
This is partially due to opportunistic investors being disappointed with the slow-paced price behavior of Bitcoin and other large altcoins and heading closer to the deeper and more chaotic waters above the top 50 altcoins. As a result, Bitcoin dominance seems to have been declining steadily, having reached around 57.4%.

During the previous crypto bull run in 2017 and 2018 Bitcoin dominance fell to just 37%. This is important because the large amount of money moving into altcoins is part of why many alts saw their all-time highs during that period.

Assuming this downward trend in Bitcoin dominance continues, we may just see another sudden drop in Bitcoin dominance. If this happens, it will once again bring a flood of money into the altcoin space and take many alts even higher.

These Bitcoin-altcoin dynamics are extremely important to comprehend because your altcoin sell off must be mindful that it will be heavily affected by Bitcoin's behavior. Bitcoin's market cap essentially sets the upper limit on where your altcoin can go. While it's true that Bitcoin's market cap will definitely continue to increase as the bull market continues, selling your Dogecoin when it crosses $50 isn't a viable exit strategy because it would give it a market cap of over $7 trillion dollars, oups, inflationary supply detected. Open / Comment

2021-03-31 23:47:44 It’s coming

https://www.tradingview.com/x/JRZ56Hmu/ Open / Comment

2021-03-30 16:43:27 I call it now and remember this.
ETH top will be 3100. Open / Comment

2021-03-29 16:48:52 Open / Comment

2021-03-29 16:48:35 Online payments using Distributed Ledger Technology.This is COTI


COTI is a distributed ledger based, financial/payment ecosystem, with the aim of being the "currency of the internet". It was intended to be a solution to the traditional financial system's problems where high transaction fees can occur, plus to rival the more sophisticated, blockchain based, decentralized finance ecosystems, where high transactions fees, delays, and a lack of global adoption are quite common.

Coti describes itself as a fintech platform that enables businesses to develop their own payment solutions and digitize any currency, saving time & money

COTI is based on Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) data structure, which they called it “The Cluster”, and is designed to address conventional finance's challenges. Hedera Hashgraph consensus remember? The verifications in a DAG don't happen in a straight line; instead, they happen in stages, with each transaction being checked before the next. Any transaction in Coti must confirm two previous transactions. Therefore, adoption is the key here. The transaction confirmation rate is increasing according to the raise in the number of network users.

Another case to consider is that in DAG consensus, the next block in the chain does not require miners to compete. As a result, the DAG model might be able to resolve the problem of decentralization. With regard to the decentralization part, Coti intends to provide voting rights for executing changes in COTI’s base protocol and deciding future road map.

The multiDAG structure of Coti allows for separate DAGs. Coti's multiDAG structure enables independent DAG clusters to be combined in the general Coti network. This allows businesses to issue their own tokens (such as stablecoins) on the Coti network using the Trustchain protocol.

As regards its scalability, using DAG allows Coti to handle 10,000+ transactions per second. Coti has a staking scheme as well. It has a structure that is similar to Defi's passive income generation logic. Coti has to complete very strong rivals in the sector of traditional online payment industry, such as PayPal and Visa, which have the ability to reach high transaction speeds with fast execution time, yet they represent drawbacks in terms of transaction fees.

Some of the features offered by Coti is a multi-currency wallet, providing access to the COTI payments network, debit cards that are linked directly to Coti wallets, processing tools for merchants’ partners so as to accept payments for COTI wallets holders.

At the same time, COTI attempts to solve the problem of volatility that occurs between the time of received payment and the time of settlement, something that discourage merchants to accept these payments. How it will be solved? By entering an internal derivative market that enables network participants to enter forward contracts and trade options that are nominated in COTI coins.

For the time being, Coti has relatively low market cap of 310$ Million, and a circulating supply of 669 Million Coti and a max supply of 2 Billion Coti. Payments is a $20 trillion market with out-of-date technologies and processes. The greatest opportunity of our lives is revolution in this business, and Coti’s DAG protocol, even if it is yet in its early stage, is the potentially right technology for it. Open / Comment

2021-03-29 01:36:48 Open / Comment