Glassnode

2024-03-30 14:02:08 In this week's Glassnode Clips, we analyze Supply Cluster Heatmap:

- The heatmap shows older coins activate at all-time high breaks, indicating long-term holders distribute as newer coins enter the market.
- All-time high breaks trigger long-term holders to shift from accumulation to distribution, marking the euphoria phase with more supply in circulation.
- Long-term holder activity at all-time high breaks consistently signals key market phases, from the start of euphoria to potential peaks and turning points.

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2024-03-29 12:50:49 If we index the Bitcoin price performance (black) since the April 2021 ATH (where we argue bear market sentiment set in), we can see a remarkable similarity to the prior cycle (blue).

By both duration and distance from the April 2021 peak, the market is in a near identical spot to December 2020 relative to the 2018-21 cycle.

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2024-03-23 13:49:47 In this week's Glassnode Clips, we analyze Bull Market Corrections:

- Recent bull markets have experienced shallower corrections than earlier ones, indicating strong buy-side pressure and limited selling.
- The market's spot-driven nature and ETF contributions in the current cycle mirror those of the 2016-2017 cycle, aiding in understanding present market behavior.
- Events like the halving influence investor actions, but despite potential sell-offs, the market has demonstrated resilience with shallow corrections, pointing to continued demand and support.

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2024-03-16 12:25:53 In this week's Glassnode Clips, we analyse Realized Cap HODL Waves:

- Realized Cap HODL Waves offer insights into market cyclical behavior by focusing on the USD value of Bitcoin's age bands, providing an economically relevant perspective beyond traditional HODL Waves.
- This method excludes less economically meaningful data, such as stationary old coins, to emphasize the supply actively involved in market dynamics.
- Realized Cap HODL Waves uncover wealth transfer patterns from long-term holders to new buyers across market cycles, showcasing shifts in the economically active Bitcoin supply.

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2024-03-13 16:17:30 The Bitcoin Realized Cap is currently increasing at a rate of $54B/month, approaching levels last seen during the run-up in early 2021.

This highlights just how significant the capital inflows have been for Bitcoin, driven in part by the tremendous success and demand for the new US ETF products.

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2024-01-04 20:06:33 In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on Bull Market Corrections:

- The analysis uses Workbench to isolate and examine significant bull market periods, color-coding each epoch for clarity.
- It evaluates the depth of corrections within bull markets, assessing drawdowns from local highs to gauge the intensity of market dips.
- The 2023 market cycle demonstrates resilience, with relatively shallow corrections and rare drawdowns beyond 20%, indicating a strong and steady upward trend for Bitcoin.

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2023-12-28 18:00:55 In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on Short-Term Holder Profit Cycles:

- Short-Term Holder Profit Cycles Analysis highlights Bitcoin's short-term holders' influence on market dynamics, focusing on those who spend coins acquired within the last five months.
- The model tracks short-term holder coins moving from loss to profit, emphasizing periods that impact future price movements and measuring the duration of these profits.
- The analysis of consolidation periods and market inflection points shows how sustained consolidation forms a basis for price rallies, with quick changes in short-term holders' profit/loss status indicating key market shifts.

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2023-12-21 18:39:57 In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on NVT Price:

- The NVT price model is used to estimate Bitcoin's fair value, highlighting its economic relevance by comparing market cap to transaction volume.
- In its analysis, the model concentrates on economically meaningful transactions, filtering out internal exchange movements and wallet transfers to enhance the accuracy of its insights.
- Recent observations from the NVT price model reveal a mismatch between Bitcoin's price rise and transaction volume, indicating rapid price increases, with a noticeable uptick in transaction activity starting from October, coinciding with an influx of new capital into the Bitcoin market.

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2023-12-07 18:35:26 In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on Bitcoin Year-to-Date Performance vs USD and Gold:

- Bitcoin surged over 140% against the USD and doubled in value compared to gold this year, highlighting its robust performance and growing appeal as an investment asset.
- Gold briefly achieved a new all-time high, reaching approximately $2,150 USD, setting a significant record in its value across all fiat currencies.
- Bitcoin is increasingly competing with gold for 'sound money' investments, driven by rising institutional interest and the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs, reflecting a shift in investment strategies.

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2023-11-30 18:23:59 In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on URPD Cost Basis Analysis:

- URPD analysis highlights key cost basis zones, showing significant Bitcoin accumulation between $25K and $31K.
- An airgap can be noted between $31k and $33k, with price having passed through here quickly.
- Emerging trends in Bitcoin's cost basis are observed around $33K to $35K, reflecting recent profit-taking and potential future market dynamics.

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