2024-06-23 13:07:26
While BTC is in a boring sideways trend, various foreign (and domestic) experts are competing to find “that very key support level”, after which Bitcoin will fall to the bottom. Different levels are named, from 64,000 to 61,000, different theories are given about what kind of mystery is happening at this level: from a certain “average entry level of large players”, as a result of which the level should act as support, to “a projection of the previous growth, delayed from the beginning of the decline ", which fits into, God forgive me, the "price fractal."
Obviously, such delights come either from boredom or from excessive knowledge of technical analysis, which results in the habit of justifying any movements in certain technical structures that necessarily speak about the prospects of the movement. Perhaps someone finds meaning in this, but as for me, it is a little less than completely meaningless.
Objectively, on BTC, since March we have had a range (a wide flat, if you like), limited by zones 71-73 above and 56-59 below (here, whoever likes to measure the boundaries of the range). Inside this zone, the price can make any somersaults as many times as it wants, but according to the classics, it will tend to the middle of the channel, periodically testing one or the other of its boundaries.
In any more or less competent book on TA, you will not find recommendations from the authors to trade within such ranges, only from their borders until the borders really remain so. All attempts to find “that same level” inside a flat are nothing more than pointing a finger at the sky, because inside the consolidation/accumulation zones, participants have no goal of forming a point (level) from which the movement will begin. The main essence of such zones is the release of volumes with the formation of further trend movements, so price jumps up and down with the breaking of all internal “key zones” happen very often and leave all the justifiers of price movements without money.
This behavior is very similar to the price behavior inside the so-called. "clouds" Ichimoku: I really love this indicator and its objectivity, one of the factors of which is the understanding that when the price is inside the zone designated as the "cloud", then movements can be completely chaotic, and reversals actually occur out of nowhere, without taking into account the support/resistance levels so diligently plotted on the chart by the expert. And this is the very moment when you should refrain from activity and wait until the price deigns to get out of the turbulent zone.
It’s the same with ranges (flat), and it doesn’t matter whether it’s global or a range or a small consolidation for 2-3 days. Losing money in the zones in which BTC has been trading since March is an inevitable result of trading when there are no appropriate conditions for it.
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