2022-11-14 05:12:20
It seems the worst-case scenario has happened, although the indicators were primed for a strong bullish rally, ultimately a black swan event impacted the market and turned the volatility indicators spark towards the downside. I waited patiently for some 2day,3day,5day candle closes and for the weekly candle close as well. The result is the market did not recover, thus confirming downside pressure with candle closes below key levels.
Now the probabilities are strong for the downside. The next Monthly macro support is 13.7k-14k which is a very strong level. But it seems the FUD is not over yet, rumors of more financial entities going bankrupt are surfacing. The situation now seems to be compared with the infamous "dot com bubble" of the year 2000 for the cryptocurrency market, and it can shake completely the whole crypto sector with many altcoins going to dust, some might never recover again, examples are Luna and FTT.
The importance now is to focus on the legit projects that are strong with revenue to stay alive for the long run as crypto winter could be upon us. It seems like the negative events have piled up through the years in a way that is provoking severe regulations, which in turn will also hit hard the market for many altcoins/projects. I think for this period the main strategy here that will benefit the most will be the fundamentals, knowing which projects will thrive and survive the regulations and will have real value to hold on into.
The whole crypto market as a speculation phase seems to be on a path to coming to an end and a new era for blockchain will rise from these ashes. So it is very important we can identify real successful projects that will hold on to value and grow in the coming years.
Now from some TA perspective, the 2day and 3Day chart indicators are suggesting downside continuation. 5day has not given a confirmation yet, but most likely will. The next 5 day candle closes in 3 days and Btc needs to close above 16.7k to perhaps avoid a free fall flush. The problem with this is that the weekly indicators are already suggesting that there will be more aggressive bearish price action. While The 2day and 3 day indicators are asking for Bitcoin price to close candles above 20.3k-20.6k... which is not good... and on top of that volatility is expanding.
What needs to happen for a bullish reversal? Reclaim 19.5k, and a definitive signal would be the monthly candle close above there. Need volatility to come back down while bearish momentum is expended. Or have aggressive green miracle candles close above momentum pivot levels while volatility is still expanding. Unfortunately, probabilities are now for the downside and a bullish scenario is less probable until the charts changes.
306 viewsSolid PR, 02:12