my thoughts on the market: music is with BTC. the BlackRock s | Blockchain Whispers ® Official (By D Man) -- The Most Amazing Crypto Channel Ever Created By Mankind!

my thoughts on the market:

music is with BTC.
the BlackRock spot ETF is the biggest catalyst since years. I expect price to rise until a decision is formed (i strongly believe that this ETF will get approved, and Binance and Tether will suffer a bit more for the sake of SEC blessing, but this is another topic).
I would recommend to ignore every possible bearish catalyst, buy spot BTC and hold it until the decision (August is the earliest possible date).

Thesis: markets are forward looking and i think that the majority of the bearish catalysts are priced in now. We had regulation, Binance and CB sued, an array of rate hikes. I don't believe in a hard landing anymore and i also don't believe that the correlation to the stock market will strengthen further. I think crypto bottoms much earlier. We had a capitulation event (FTX fallout) and we had time-based capitulation (tourists leaving).
The only bearist catalysts left is Kobayashi and US gov selling, and a possible DOJ lawsuit against Binance (good for chances of ETF approval).

What further strengthens my conviction is global liquidity is rising again, China has cut rates and announced a stimulus.

Why i bought BTC and not ETH?
BTC still the best hedge against M2-money supply and this spot ETH will open the floodgates. This is a very strong narrative.
ETH on the other hand is dependent on big narratives (ICO era utility tokens, DeFi, NFTs). The core business of ETH is selling block space and without new compelling narratives this will be hard. And L2s add fuel to this fire. I have lost conviction on ETH in the last weeks.
Also i think ETH is the crowded trade atm, BTC dominance mooning and BTC outperform would be the max pain trade, would rekt everybody.

And if new narratives emerge I can easily switch back to ETH. Opportunity cost for this is limited, would be 10% or smth.

so, don‘t try to time a ETH/BTC reversal, just buy BTC spot and ignore altcoins (with one exception: shitcoins).

shitcoins are a hotbed of activity at the moment, be especially sharp for everything that emerges from the Milady community.

keep positions very small in this segment, as it is high risk.
cheers

For Blockchain Whispers,
Mr. Y