This index predicted the previous crises in the US and now it has again signaled recession .
The accuracy of this indicator was confirmed by today's U.S. GDP data, which declined stronger than forecast to 1.1% in Q1.
The S&P 500 went up:
Helped Meta with a better-than-forecast report, with their stock adding 14% today.
For investors, near recession = a reversal in Fed monetary policy.
For now, most retain faith in the Fed's ability to do a soft landing and the sooner the crisis happens, the sooner the regulator will move to financial stimulus (printing dollars). Helping this sentiment is the Fed's success in lowering inflation.
Remember that the main collapse in the markets during a crisis usually occurs after the black swan.
