LibreCharts

2021-05-01 22:55:39 Purpose of This Analysis The entire market was green. So it would be asinine to simply make "calls" and then give ourselves a pat on the back as though we did something. We need to see where the cash is flowing into in the market (certain sectors perform… Open / Comment

2021-05-01 22:53:12 Purpose of This Analysis

The entire market was green. So it would be asinine to simply make "calls" and then give ourselves a pat on the back as though we did something.

We need to see where the cash is flowing into in the market (certain sectors perform way better than others at various times).

In a bull market, you want to optimize your ROI by ensuring that you're picking investments that can yield the greatest overall return (minimizing / eliminating opportunity cost).

How We Were Able to do This to Some Extent

These indices are weighted (based on market cap).

So I did a diffchecker on the weighted averages from earlier this week vs. this most recent brief market analysis, then marked each asset that had increased in relative portfolio weight size.

This left us with:

1. PancakeSwap

2. Ethereum Classic (Barely)

3. Compound

4. Enjin Coin

5. Waves (by quite a lot)

6. Digibyte

7. Basic Attention Token (barely)

8. Near

9. Theta Fuel (by a lot)

10. Fantom (by a considerable margin!)

11. Harmony Open / Comment

2021-05-01 22:45:40 Visiting MVIS Indices

Quick Legend

1. Yellow Line = Small caps

2. Red Line = Mid Caps

3. Blue Line = Large Caps

4. Grey Line = Overall index performance (includes all the components across all 3 different indices)

The great thing about this site is that it takes the T100 and sorts it into three different indices (with no overlap in the components)

1. The 'large caps' are relegated for the massive projects like $DOT / $ADA / $BTC / $ETH etc.

2. The mid caps are essentially anything from T15-50

3. The small caps represents anything T50-100

As we can see in the chart above, from April 29th - 30th the small caps were up 7.48% vs. the mid-caps which were only up 5.83% & large caps that were +5.44%. Open / Comment

2021-05-01 22:42:17 CoinCheckup Data

For the sake of brevity, we only looked at the total delta for the aggregate market capitalization between April 29th - 30th (one day).

According to their data (which gets fairly granular), the total market cap had increased by >5% in that 24H period alone Open / Comment

2021-05-01 22:39:47 Quick Market Analysis (from yesterday)

Sorry if some of this content is ever so slightly out of date (go ahead and get a Librehash membership and it'll never be outdated because they got this way in advance).

Its worthwhile to see this though and get a feel for how we're breaking down the markets here (with precision) Open / Comment

2021-05-01 22:32:12 Quick Facts

1. This reduction in difficulty will bring it down to where it was on January 9th, 2021 (almost exactly).

2. During that epoch, the network was able to mine blocks at an average of 9 minutes and 2 seconds (almost a full +10% ahead of the target time of 10 mins).

3. The average hashrate during that period was 147.46 Eh/s; that's -12.6% less than what the current average was for this epoch and that's only what's required if miners wanted to churn in 9 minute blocks

4. Basic math tells us that for the network to hit that target right at 10 minutes (and fall in line w the targeted probabilistic calculations), we would just reduce the hashrate for the Jan 9th, 2021 epoch by 10% (14.746), which means all we need is just 132.714 Eh/s to hit that 10-minute block time target (assuming the difficulty reduces down to 20.6T)

5. The caculated hashrate necessary to target 10 minute blocks at the 20.6T difficulty = 132.71400 Eh/s ; that would be an approximate -21%+ reduction from the average hashrate for this current epoch we're in

Hard to imagine that miners won't have a field day here Open / Comment

2021-05-01 22:32:12 May 1st, 2021 (estimated diff. adjustment -12% / -13%)

Its very possible that this could be a catalyst in itself.

What Makes the Drop in Difficulty a Catalyst?

One could argue that the drop in difficulty (by itself), means that it has become more profitable to mine Bitcoin than it was previously.

In this case, significantly so. Given the fact that Bitcoin is almost as expensive as its ever been, this could create a 'free-for-all', where we see a crash of hashrate on top of Bitcoin (natural economic incentive).

If its more competitive to mine Bitcoin, its more competitive to get Bitcoin (if we restrict the term "get" to mining it). This may seem stupid, but there's a value to newly minted bitcoins. They have zero history to them, they're fresh. Zero taint, no mixed this or that - no history.

Its the ultimate best option for someone that really wants any level of "anonymity" on Bitcoin in the truest sense. Open / Comment

2021-05-01 22:32:12 November 3rd, 2020 (-16.05% difficulty adjustment)

This data point is going to be the most important, because:

1. Its the most recent example

2. The market sentiment & atmosphere is more parallel to what we're seeing now - tons of bullish sentiment, Bitcoin just came off of a strong October (following the Square + PayPal BTC investment news), and it appeared that $BTC was due to continue its bullish ascent.

Bitcoin's Price Went Crazy Afterward

As we can see in this attached picture, Bitcoin went on a +200% run with only one momentary pause around the holidays before getting back to business as usual right around Christmas / New Years Open / Comment

2021-05-01 22:32:12 When looking at the largest daily point drops in stock market history, it drills the point even further home that February / March 2020 were unprecedented in terms of how bearish they were.

The list above shows us that the top three daily point losses for the stock market all occurred within a one-week span last March.

Overall, 6/7 of the worst daily point losses of all time all occurred within a three week span during that month.

Overall, between February 24th - April 1st, 2020, the stock market experienced 9 out of 12 of its worst daily point losses ever. In fact, the carnage was so bad last March that the stock market had technically entered into a "bear market" (analysts still consider that brief, yet scary dip to be a legitimate bear market / recession). Open / Comment