Biden, Powell, and Economists Agree: Forecasting a Recession is Tricky
Comparing the comments of President Joe Biden’s administration, the Federal Reserve and the recent spate of economists’ forecasts, one might think they’re all living in different worlds.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen repeated the mantra this weekend that a recession isn’t “at all inevitable.” Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintains that a soft landing - or softish - is possible, a view reinforced by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard on Monday.
Neither Powell nor Yellen predicted inflation to zip to a four-decade high this year. And economists’ reputation for forecasting has never recovered from missing the 2008-09 financial crisis entirely.
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