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2022-10-11 13:15:37 Making sense of the recent Fed narrative

What is the Fed Pivot?
The ‘Fed Pivot’ is a micro-narrative that has developed recently in response to slowing US data. When US data prints negatively, then the prospect of a Fed Pivot is thought to increase.

But what is the ‘pivot’
To pivot simply means to change direction. So, the idea of a Fed pivot is that the Fed will change from its aggressive hiking stance to a slower path of rates.

When is a ‘pivot’ expected?

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https://bit.ly/HYCMLab-Oct-11
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2022-10-10 11:29:59 Battle of the banks

Don't miss the latest Seasonal Insights with the Chief Market Analyst Kevin Murph

When interest rates are rising that tends to gains in financial stocks. As interest rates increase, so do the margins that Banks can charge for their loans. Rising debt repayments, especially in a very fast-moving rate change environment, mean that banks’ profitability can gain.

With interest rates rising around the world, and the Fed on course to keep hiking into next year, is this a great time to consider investing in financials? By using the Seasonax screener you can look for potential winners and then compare them to each other.

The seasonals for both BlackRock and Bank Of New York are very strong from Oct 13 until around the end of December with gains in 8 out of 10 years for the Bank of New York and 9 out of 10 years for BlackRock. So, is it time to invest in financials?

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https://bit.ly/HYCMLab-Oct-10
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2022-10-10 11:03:36 How to trade just before major announcements

Avoid opening positions just before major announcements

When a major news announcement is about to be released financial markets typically consolidate. Ranges become smaller, volume dries up, and volatility falls. Why? Simply because few traders want to take financial risk prior to a major news event. This article will give you some general tips on trading just before a major news announcement.

The greater the risk of the event the less direction you can see prior to the meeting. So, a hotly anticipated central bank meeting will see more of a price ‘freeze’ (period of smaller range activity) than a lower-tier economic data point that the market is not looking at. The general rule of thumb is this: the greater the anticipation, the smaller the price moves just before the event.

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https://bit.ly/HYCMLab-Oct10
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2022-10-07 14:09:18 Winter demand for oil starts to fall now

Don't miss the latest Seasonal Insights with the Chief Market Analyst Kevin Murph

The OPEC+ meeting has decided to reduce oil output by 2mln barrels per day. The UAE was supportive of oil output cuts, despite US pressure, but the ‘actual’ size of the OPEC+ cut is expected to be lower than the headline indicates. The OPEC+ meetings will no longer happen each month. The reason for the cut this week was in part due to the fall in winter demand for oil.

If you look at the seasonal chart for oil you can see how marked this fall in winter demand is. However, it is unlikely to play out this year.

One development to look out for is any peace that develops between Russia and Ukraine. If there is a peace deal found then oil prices can fall quickly in line with its seasonal bias for lower prices.


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https://bit.ly/HYCMLab-Oct-7

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2022-10-07 13:29:11 Reserve Bank of New Zealand: Full steam ahead?

The RBNZ meeting was as expected this week. Rates were raised by 50bps to 3.50bps and the RBNZ maintained a robust view of the domestic economy. Reuters reported that the board even debated hiking by 75bps and was expressing concerns over a weaker NZD which posed threats to the inflationary outlook. The RBNZ noted that domestic spending has been strong despite slowing growth. Employment levels are high and households have managed to keep higher levels of savings. The country, like many other places, is still seeing labour shortages.

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https://bit.ly/HYCMLab-oct7
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2022-10-06 17:21:46 ​​ The Secret Behind The Record-Breaking Trading Algorithm That Brokers Don't Want You To Know About

There have been rumours lately of an algo-trading system which is causing panic among Forex brokers. The renowned MetaTrader Expert Advisor developer Valeriia Mishchenko from Russia posted more than 4 years ago one signal on her verified MyFxBook profile, called "Waka Waka", which has recently hit 52 consecutive months in profit in a live broker account, in October of 2022.

Not only that, but this signal has been performing at a steady 8% monthly return over the investment. On the stretch of four years, the total account growth is close to 6000%. This means that if someone invested 10000 USD, lets say, 3 years ago, and let the Expert Advisor do all the heavy lifting, he/she would be sitting at an astonishing 150000 USD net profit.

This is not the first time the industry has seen an EA which does outstandingly well. But for how long this has been achieved is an unprecedented feat to this date. Specialists are looking closely and into the signals produced by Waka Waka, in the hopes to crack the secret behind the impressive phenom.

What is actually curious about this algo-trading system, is that it has remained relatively hidden until now. By going to the MyFxBook most popular/discussed trading systems, Waka Waka is not to be found on the top 10. But by analyzing the track records of each one of these, there is no other Expert Advisor that has been in profit for so long, and with such big returns.

So, the mystery remains.. what is Valeria hiding?

Discover more about this revolutionary Expert Advisor by clicking here
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2022-10-05 14:35:02 Time for S&P500 longs on a Fed pivot?

Don't miss the latest Seasonal Insights with the Chief Market Analyst Kevin Murph

There are growing rumours that the Federal Reserve is about to do a pivot. The disturbance in the UK Gilt market sent a warning signal to financial markets that making a wrong step in tackling the cost of living crisis and surging inflation risks serious disruption with potentially serious ramifications. So, the Fed is rumoured to be considering slowing down its path of hikes.

Furthermore, on Monday the US ISM Manufacturing PMI print missed across the board which meant the market would be pricing in more of a chance of a Fed pause based on that missed data.

So, if the US ISM Services PMI prints miss on Wednesday and the headline comes in below 54 and prices below 65 then we could see a decent leg up in the S&P500 again.

The strong seasonal pattern for the S&P500 could also support S&P500 prices higher, so if the Fed does ‘pivot’ is now the time to enter S&P500 longs?

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https://bit.ly/HYCMLab-oct5
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2022-10-05 12:26:10 Friday’s top economic trading opportunities

On Friday we have CAD jobs data and the US NFP data. Both reports are worth catching and here is the outlook and what to look out for.

Canadian jobs data has been showing signs of weakness recently. The last three reports have shown contractionary prints and another drop in jobs this month will likely get the Bank of Canada’s attention. The BoC is on a hawkish path, but if we get the fourth miss in jobs here that could be enough to weaken the CAD on expectations that the BoC may turn more negative on rates.

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https://bit.ly/HYCMLab-Oct05
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2022-10-03 12:07:43 Trading contrary opinion
This is an art form and a way of trading at market extremes. By definition, trading contrary opinion is a way of trying to catch market turning points.

Recently, when the Bank of England intervened in the bond market, there was a huge run of speculation as to how dire the outlook was for the GBP. However, we have seen a relief rally in the GBP soon after the most bearish events. Why? And how does that work?

There have been good reasons for the GBP weakness. A strong USD, the Russian/Ukraine crisis, worries over the inflation-boosting mini-budget, Brexit, and disorderly bond market moves. However, there reached a point early last week when it was nearly impossible to find anything positive anywhere on the GBP. The sentiment was maximally pessimistic. That’s the point where it often pays to have a contrary opinion. Buy why is this?

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https://bit.ly/HYCMLab-Oct3
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2022-09-26 14:06:05 USDCHF near-term upside bias?

Don't miss the latest Market Mood on #USDCHF with the Chief Market Analyst Kevin Murph

On Sep 21 the Fed hiked by 75 bps to 3.00-3.25% and Jerome Powell delivered a significant hawkish message expanding the terminal rate to 4.6% for 2023, up from 3.8% prior. Powell affirmed the dot plot in his statement by saying that it is likely that rates will get to levels in the Dot Plot. This was a hawkish statement and that kept the USD bid.

The following morning the Swiss National Bank met and it hiked interest rates by 75bps. However, Short Term Interest Markets (STIR) had priced in a nearly 100% chance of a 100bps hike. This meant the CHF sold off heavily on the decision and sent the USDCHF sharply higher.

This divergence should favour USDCHF upside in the near term with a divergence in the central banks’ move relative to the market’s pricing for their rate decisions.

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https://bit.ly/HYCMLab-Sept26
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