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2022-10-31 12:11:56 Top seasonal trade for November

Don't miss the latest Seasonal Insights on #FTSE with the Chief Market Analyst Kevin Murph

The UK FTSE has been battered lower over recent years by Brexit blues and over recent months by UK political instability. However, the appointment of Rishi Sunak has calmed the market for now and a general election is unlikely to be for the next 18 months. So, does this mean the lower FTSE share price has been overextended to the downside?

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https://bit.ly/HYCMLab-Oct-31
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2022-10-31 11:38:05 What to expect from the Federal Reserve?

It was on Friday 21st October that the first indication of a Fed slowdown in rate hikes started to become apparent. Fed’s Daly was the last Fed speaker before the Fed’s blackout period and he made it clear that the Fed may consider hiking by 50bps which was against the consensus of a 75bps expected. This dovish comment has allowed the USD to sell off, yields to drop, and stocks to rise alongside gold and silver. So, what are the current expectations for the next Fed meeting?

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https://bit.ly/HYCMLab-Oct31
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2022-10-25 12:55:04 Why are Q3 earnings important?

Earnings from big-name companies like Apple, Amazon, Facebook (Meta), and Google (Alphabet) have the power to move whole indexes like the S&P500. As these big-name stocks have a large weighting in the indexes, a surprise earnings announcement can impact wider risk sentiment and cause indexes like the Dow, S&P500, and Nasdaq to move sharply higher or lower.

This earnings season is very important because investors want to see if the US consumer is starting to slow down their activity. Apple’s earnings on Thursday have the potential to move markets sharply, for example, if investors see a big miss in the earnings expected.

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https://bit.ly/HYCMLab-Oct-25
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2022-10-24 12:11:19 The rise of fiscal stimulus and what it means

When Mario Draghi left the ECB, his rallying cry was that the ECB had done its work and it was the role of fiscal stimulus to help further. We live in a new era when it is not banks that primarily provide capital for growth, but governments. The foundation was laid in the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. A number of banks were overexposed, and over-leveraged, like giddy retail traders, were left out of capital. Who bailed them out? Governments.

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https://bit.ly/HYCMLab-Oct-24
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2022-10-17 13:29:53 Tesla turnaround?

Don't miss the latest Seasonal Insights on #Tesla with the Chief Market Analyst Kevin Murph

Tesla has some broad issues that are a real challenge for the stock price right now. More and more main car manufacturers are getting their Electric Vehicles to market. On top of this, a recession looms for the US. High US inflation last Friday means that if the US faces a hard landing then demand for high-end EVs is going to be reduced. Tesla’s shares are also trading at a very high price-to-earnings ratio of around 50 times.

The one caveat to these factors is Elon Musk. The man can run multiple companies when many people struggle to run even one! The only problem is this, has Elon Mush bitten off more than he can chew with his purchase of Twitter?

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https://bit.ly/HYCMLab-OCT-17
Start_Trade_With_HYCM Open / Comment

2022-10-17 12:43:47 Using a sell-on-stop order for BoJ intervention

At the moment there is a strong threat that the Bank of Japan may intervene in the JPY to strengthen it. The Bank of Japan is not wanting to see further depreciation of the Yen since a weak Yen puts pressure on Japan’s domestic market. As Japan imports the majority of its energy needs a weak JPY increases those energy costs. Although it is true that the JPY’s weakness is advantageous for Japan’s export market (a weak currency makes exports more competitive overseas) politically there needs to be a balance between domestic and International market needs.

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https://bit.ly/HYCMLab-Oct17
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2022-10-14 12:28:27 Why the Canadian Dollar is more vulnerable to bad news than good?

The latest communication from the BoC shows that the bank is clearly on an interest rate hiking path. Earlier in October governor Tiff Macklem said that he remains firmly on an interest-rate hiking path saying that price pressures are clearly elevated and risk becoming entrenched without further interest rate hikes. So, with that in mind here is a look at what to be mindful of when trading the CAD.

Despite the more hawkish comments from Governor Macklem there is a slowdown in the Canadian economy. House prices have been falling, jobs decreasing, and inflation has also been falling lower. The headline inflation figure has been dropping.

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https://bit.ly/HYCMLab-Oct14
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2022-10-13 12:32:03 Tesla faces growing challenges

Elon Musk has a mercurial aura surrounding him. He led the way with Tesla in blazing ahead with an Electric Vehicle that could be manufactured and sold to a public eager for progress on climate change. He plans to send humans to Mars, can launch reusable rockets and now, in his latest move, has finally agreed to buy Twitter. Elon Musk manages to succeed in a whole variety of ways that are hard to imagine but actually possible.

However, Tesla is facing some growing challenges that need to be evaluated carefully. Last week Tesla fell around 16% down to key support at the 210 region.

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https://bit.ly/HYCMLab-Oct-13
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2022-10-12 16:01:33 #USDJPY seasonals and the #BoJ intervention

Don't miss the latest Seasonal Insights with the Chief Market Analyst Kevin Murph

The Bank of Japan is concerned about the continued weakness of the Yen as it increases costs for Japan’s domestic market. This concern ultimately led to an intervention in the Yen around the end of September which sent the USDJPY sharply lower at the time. However, history is against currency intervention alone being successful in moving the USDJPY lower. The most famous recent example was when the SNB wanted to keep the EUR/CHF pair pegged at 1.2000. It failed, despite enormous efforts, in January 2015.

So, the Bank of Japan will be wary about trying to send the USDJPY lower as long as US interest rates are expected to keep rising and Japan is maintaining its ultra-low monetary policy.

The seasonals are also against USDJPY falls. From a seasonal perspective, between October 16 and December 08, the USDJPY pair has risen 10 times and only fallen 5 times. The average return has been +2.57%.

So, does this mean that the USDJPY will continue to track higher despite any actions from the BoJ? It seems that both history and seasonals are lining up against the chances of success for the BoJ, so any impact of intervention could be very short-lived.

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https://bit.ly/HYCMLab-OCT-10
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2022-10-11 13:24:51 Don't miss the latest Seasonal Insights with the Chief Market Analyst Kevin Murph

Seasonal point to #EURNZD weakness

Last week the RBNZ met and it kept to its hawkish path. The board debated that it may have needed to hike by 75bps (it stuck to 50bps in the end), worried the weak NZD was an inflation risk and expected to keep hiking rates. This strengthened the outlook for the NZD going forward.

The Eurozone, by contrast, is struggling with rising inflation, threats of a recession, high energy prices, and a semi-war footing with the Russian and Ukraine crisis. So this does open up a EURNZD sell bias.

Over the last 20 years, the EURNZD pair has fallen a total of 16 times between October 07 and November 07. So, does this mean that the EURNZD pair will track lower from here?

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https://bit.ly/HYCMLab-OCT-11
Start_Trade_With_HYCM Open / Comment