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2022-11-10 13:02:56 #Silver demand expected to rise sharply in #India

Check the latest Seasonal Insights with the Chief Market Analyst Kevin Murph

Why is silver demand expected to rise sharply in India? Quite simply, because of pent-up demand post-Covid. Supply chain issues and falling demand meant silver demand was pressured in 2020 and 2021. However, according to Bloomberg, silver sales are back on track. Silver imports for 2022 through to August are already over 6,000 tons. In 2021 India only shipped around 2,800 tons, so that means demand is already easily eclipsing 2021.

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https://bit.ly/HYCMLab-NOV-10
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2022-11-10 12:21:24 What’s going on with the New Zealand Dollar?

The New Zealand Dollar has been moving higher recently in line with the more bullish outlook from the RBNZ in October. In that meeting, the NZD had not been very responsive to its underlying fundamentals. However, the NZD has been moving as you would expect after the last RBNZ meeting as the NZD rose on a more hawkish outlook from Governor Orr and his team.

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https://bit.ly/HYCMLab-Nov-10
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2022-11-09 14:18:00 Midterm seasonality: Is there a 100% chance of a higher S&P500 in 3 months’ time?

According to Bloomberg, there is a possibility for S&P500 to rise over 0.5% if the Republicans hold onto Congress but to fall by 3.3% if the Democrats hold Congress. However, the medium-term picture for the midterm elections looks fairly strong.

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bit.ly/HYCMLab-Nov9
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2022-11-08 13:22:41 Walt #Disney earnings after today’s close

Check out the latest Seasonal Insights with the Chief Currency Analyst Kevin Murph

Walt Disney earnings are due after today’s close and investors will be watching for news of how their Disney+ subscription service has been doing. Has Disney+ managed to eat into Netflix and Amazon Prime’s margins? Disney already has more subscribers than Netflix as it surpassed Netflix’s 220 million subscribers 3 months ago. Will it now extend that lead?

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https://bit.ly/HYCMLab-Nov-8
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2022-11-08 13:01:26 BoE’s relief

What a difference a new Prime Minister has made to the Bank of England! The Bank of England hiked rates by 75 bps to 3% last week in the biggest hike in over 30 years. However, the Bank of England signposted that it would be able to bring rates to a lower level than it had previously anticipated. This was reflected in Short Term Interest Rate markets on Friday of last week with the high rate now seen as 4.68% (down from 4.89%). That’s the good news for UK mortgage owners, but the bad news is this: the Bank of England is only able to tighten less because the fiscal pain is going to come from the UK’s budget on November 17.

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https://bit.ly/HYCMLab-Nov8
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2022-11-07 13:49:12 #GBPUSD and the #Fed &# BoE divergence

Check out the latest Market Mood with the Chief Market Analyst Kevin Murph

This week the BoE and the Federal Reserve both met and both had divergent views on the terminal rate for each country.

The Fed hiked by 75bps as expected, but Jerome Powell signalled that the terminal rate (the ultimate high level of rates the Fed is heading to) would have to increase. This supported the USD as higher interest rates support a domestic country’s currency strength.

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https://bit.ly/HYCMLab-NOV7
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2022-11-07 13:40:02 Fed stays strong against inflation

The Fed hiked by 75 bps as expected and initially had bullish stock hopes firing. The Fed said, in its statement, that it would consider the impact of monetary tightening lags as it moved forward. This was a dovish statement as it suggested that the Fed was not going to just automatically keep taking large rate hikes. It was the Fed trying to reassure the economists who thought the Fed risked over-tightening. See here for the Bloomberg survey which showed that nearly 75% of all economists surveyed thought the Fed risked over-tightening. However, all bullish hopes for stocks quickly faded once the Press Conference started.

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bit.ly/HYCMLab-Nov7
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2022-11-03 18:35:20 Is the long view the best view for global stocks?

Check out the latest Seasonal Insights on #Indices with the Chief Market Analyst Kevin Murph

Trying to time the market is a significant challenge that even professional investors struggle with. So, there are a couple of simple points that can help those wanting a more passive style of investing.

Simple point number 1
Global indices, over the long term, gain. Whatever the crisis has been, eventually global stocks recover. The MSCI All Country World Index shows that over time stocks have gained.

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https://bit.ly/HYCMLab-NOV-3
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2022-11-01 16:55:25 #Costco vs #Walmart: Battle of the discounters

Check the latest Seasonal Insights with the Chief Market Analyst Kevin Murph

When economic conditions are tough consumers change their spending habits. Some companies actually see more demand during a downturn and can thrive in a recessionary environment. One group of stocks that you can search using the Seasonax screener is a group that tends to gain in recessions called consumer staples.

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bit.ly/HYCMLab-NOV1
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2022-11-01 12:55:21 ECB: The latest bank to take a dovish tilt

The ECB’s decision to hike rates by 75bps was expected, but the communication from the meeting was considered dovish as hints of a slowing rate hikes were read into some of the details. The first point that traders looked at was the change in the wording of the statement. The previous statement read, “the Governing Council took today’s decision, and expects to raise interest rates further”. In contrast, previously the text had read, “over the next several meeting the Governing Council expects to raise interest rates further”. The omission of the word ‘several’ led investors to believe that the ECB may be slowing the path of rates going forward.

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https://bit.ly/HYCMLab-Nov1
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