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2022-06-23 22:10:44 Don’t trust the stock-market bounce until S&P 500 is back above 3,800 - analysts saying

U.S. stocks remain in bounce mode after the S&P 500 index tumbled last week to its lowest finish since December 2020, but many chart watchers remain unconvinced the uptick will prove to be anything more than another bear-market rebound.

What would it take to change their minds? The 3,800 level on the index, which has so far proven to be stiff resistance, is in focus.

“Since the beginning of last week, 3,800 has become a new ceiling for the S&P 500 as sellers have repeatedly stepped in and overwhelmed the tentative, weakhanded bids,” said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a Thursday note.

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2022-06-23 14:40:57 This star hedge-fund manager says some major tech names are now value plays, as he shorts one meme-stock favorite

Stocks are on the rebound again, at least that’s the vibe from futures.

That’s a day after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell confirmed to lawmakers, what markets already knew — that a soft economic landing might be tricky while taming the inflation beast.

Along with average investors, hedge funds have had a rough start to this year. Managers were down about -0.56% in May, outperforming the Nasdaq by 1.49%, but trailing the S&P 500 SPX, -0.13% by 0.57%, according to the Eurekahedge Report.

“We don’t think we can say bonds are a value play,” and that’s opposed to a couple of tech names that they reluctantly shared. “This doesn’t mean if we enter a recession, there won’t be a big bond rally, but in terms of the things we compare yields to, bonds are considerably less disastrous. But that is damning with faint praise.”

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2022-06-23 14:37:57 The U.S. housing market is teetering on recession. Will the economy soon follow?

High mortgage rates and home prices batter key part of the economy, but the news isn’t all bad.

The last time the housing market suffered a major meltdown in 2006, it took the entire U.S. economy with it. But history never follows the exact same script twice.

The weakening housing market is undoubtedly going to hurt the economy. Single-family home construction fell to a 1 million annual pace rate in May from a 15-year high of 1.31 million in December. Permits to build more homes also tumbled.

It’s probably going to get worse, too.

Home prices had already surged to a record high when the Federal Reserve in March began to quickly raise interest rates to combat high inflation. The central bank’s aggressive action pushed the 30-year fixed mortgage to more than 6% from just 2.75% last fall.

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2022-06-22 12:59:53 Deutsche Bank Expects Sooner, More Severe US Recession as the Fed Takes 'Aggressive Hiking Path'

Deutsche Bank has updated its recession forecast. The bank’s economists now see “an earlier and somewhat more severe recession” than previously predicted. “The Fed has undertaken a more aggressive hiking path, financial conditions have tightened sharply and economic data are beginning to show clear signs of slowing,” said the economists.

In response to these developments, we now expect an earlier and somewhat more severe recession.

A more severe tightening of financial conditions could easily pull forward recession risks to around the turn of the year, which could short-circuit the Fed’s tightening cycle.

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2022-06-22 12:54:12 U.K. inflation accelerated further to 9.1% in May

Inflation in the U.K. quickened slightly to a new four-decade high in May due to rising energy and food costs, with little prospect of the trend easing in coming months.

The consumer-price index–which measures what consumers pay for goods and services–increased 9.1% in May, its fastest pace since June 1982, up from the 9% annual rate in April, data from the U.K.’s Office for National Statistics showed Wednesday.

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected a 9.2% annual inflation rate.

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2022-06-22 12:50:22 Russian Ruble Taps 7-Year High Against the US Dollar — Economist Says 'Don’t Ignore the Exchange Rate'

Recent news reports have detailed that Russia’s fiat currency, the ruble, was the best-performing currency worldwide and the articles explained that American economists were perplexed by the trend. On Monday, the Russian ruble rose to 55.47 per dollar, which was the highest increase since 2015. While many have dismissed the ruble’s exchange rate, Charles Lichfield, the Atlantic Council’s Geoeconomics Center deputy director, published an editorial called: “Don’t ignore the exchange rate: How a strong ruble can shield Russia.”

Russia’s Ruble Climbs Higher — Report Says "Putin Is Having the Last Laugh"

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2022-06-21 19:41:33 High Level International Bankers Simulate the Collapse of Global Financial System

A simulation of a theory based catastrophe of global bankers collapsing the financial system was conducted fairly recently. There was a striking similarity between this event and the infamous “Event 201”, held in late 2019.

The simulated "war game", as Israel's Finance Ministry called it and planned over the past year, evolved over 10 days, with sensitive data emerging on the Dark Web. The simulation also used fake news reports that in the scenario caused chaos in global markets and a run on banks.

The simulation -- likely caused by what officials called "sophisticated" players -- featured several types of attacks that impacted global foreign exchange and bond markets, liquidity, integrity of data and transactions between importers and exporters.

Treasury officials from the United States, Austria, Germany, Israel, Italy, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Thailand, and the United Arab Emirates were among the ten countries. Open / Comment

2022-06-21 14:56:46 After Inflation Fiasco, Central Banks Now Want to Monopolize Trust in Money With CBDC Push and Crypto Bashing

As central banks across the globe are now admitting they failed to keep inflation under control and by sharply rising rates threaten to push economies into recession, they now claim that they are the main source of trust in the monetary system.

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS), sometimes referred to as ‘the central bank of central banks’, is out with a new report where it bashes the crypto industry while promoting what it calls “a brighter vision of the future monetary system” through central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).

"The Bank of International Settlements recognizes Bitcoin is a competitor to central banks with this statement," economic analyst reacted.

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2022-06-21 14:33:22 Inflation will price many Americans out of Housing and into Homelessness

One of the most detrimental aspects of an inflationary or stagflationary crisis is that, in most cases, housing costs tend to rise while home sales fall.

It might seem counterintuitive; one would assume that as sales fall so should prices, but this is the upside-down world of inflation. Certain commodities and products, usually necessities, almost always skyrocket in price, ultimately driving most American families out of the market completely.

One of the only exceptions to this rule is when the government institutes rent or price controls. In Weimar Germany, for example, the government enforced strict regulatory controls on landlords, fixing rent at a rate that made profits impossible.

The last thing anyone with common sense would want is for the government to become their landlord by default.

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2022-06-21 14:29:41 Biden, Powell, and Economists Agree: Forecasting a Recession is Tricky

Comparing the comments of President Joe Biden’s administration, the Federal Reserve and the recent spate of economists’ forecasts, one might think they’re all living in different worlds.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen repeated the mantra this weekend that a recession isn’t “at all inevitable.” Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintains that a soft landing - or softish - is possible, a view reinforced by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard on Monday.

Neither Powell nor Yellen predicted inflation to zip to a four-decade high this year. And economists’ reputation for forecasting has never recovered from missing the 2008-09 financial crisis entirely.

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