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2023-01-09 15:24:04 #Netflix ’s noteworthy seasonals

Don't miss the latest Seasonal Insights with the Chief Market Analyst Kevin Murph

Netflix earnings are due on January 19 and expectations have been rising that earnings will start to show a sharp drop in US companies. With a coming US recession seen as a base case for the market, there is still a chance that tech earnings surprise to the upside. Especially, if falling numbers are expected but there are some upside surprises, this could result in some relief rallies over the short to even medium term for some heavily sold tech stocks.

One stock that is worth looking at carefully is Netflix. This so-called ‘stay at home’ stock benefited from Covid stay at home orders as demand for its services rose. However, recent falling numbers have been a cause for concern. What will the latest earnings show on January 19?

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2023-01-09 14:32:47 US inflation data on Thursday
The latest Fed minutes sum up the conundrum for the market nicely when it comes to understanding what the approach to the USD and Fed policy is. The Fed minutes show that no Fed participants see a rate cut appropriate for 2023. However, Fed fund futures expected 2 rate cuts at the start of the year. So, the market is fighting the Fed on the way down. The general rule of thumb is ‘never fight the Fed’.

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2023-01-09 12:55:59 What’s looking hot for 2023?

The first thing to realise about yearly looks ahead is that they can prove to be spectacularly wrong. So, when looking ahead always be aware that these outlooks can change as the incoming data changes too. Projecting the future beyond 6 months tends to be virtually impossible anyway as life is a constant engagement with change. So, be prepared to adapt as market conditions change. However, with that being said, here are some key themes that look to be ahead for 2023.

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2023-01-05 14:04:13 Gold surge ahead?

Don't miss the latest Seasonal Insights on #Gold with the Chief Market Analyst Kevin Murph

The outlook for gold has been improving since the US10Y bond yield appeared to cap out around the 4.35% region at the end of October last year. The USD also gave up its September high adding to support for gold.

One of the expectations for this year is that the US economy is heading towards a stagflationary one with high inflation and low growth. Many analysts see a stagflationary environment as positive for gold. So, is this time for gold’s seasonals to play out?

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2023-01-05 12:00:49 US labour data a major focus

One of the factors that has kept the Fed on its hawkish rate path has been the resilience of the US labour market. Yes, the cost of living has increased, companies are starting to factor in higher costs, consumers see leaner times ahead, but the labour market has remained strong and wages high. One of the contributing factors to firmer wages has been put down by some analysts to a number of workers taking early retirement during COVID which was made more attractive by record-high stock prices. This created a reduction of workers boosting wages and keeping labour data firm.

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2023-01-04 12:13:41 New year, new fears: Where are stocks headed in 2023?

Last year global stocks had their worst year since 2008. World stock market capitalisation fell nearly 20% which, in recent history, was only eclipsed by the near 50% drop in 2008. However, it should be remembered that the decline followed unprecedented levels of fiscal stimulus from governments and years of low-interest rates from central banks.

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2022-12-22 17:02:45 USD softness into year-end

Don't miss the latest Seasonal Insights on #DXY with the Chief Market Analyst Kevin Murph

Another really notable trend around this time of the year is USD weakness. This is due to some taxation reasons that regularly see USD flows out of parent US companies into daughter companies around the year-end. So, the USD does tend to be very weak heading into the year-end.

Over the last 25 years, the dollar index has fallen 20 times between Dec 21 and Dec 31. The largest fall has been -2.46% in 2000. The percentage of winning sell trades has been 80%. Will the USD show weakness again this year?

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2022-12-22 11:52:39 Should you use a squawk service?

A news squawk service literally talks the news out to you over a microphone. You then receive the spoken news on your computer’s speakers. It gives you access to a team of people looking at the markets for you. When something significant happens in terms of news flow or price movement an audible voice lets you know very quickly what is happening. So, for example, it could be that there is a sudden 25 pip move on the GBPUSD pair. The squawk will flag that move up to you very quickly. The squawk will also let you know if that move is in relation to a news piece. The squawk keeps you informed of market moves and the known causes of those moves. Helpfully the squawk can also tell you if there is no reason for the moves, which can be handy to know. In addition to the ‘squawk’ element of the service, a good squawk service will also provide access to analysts that traders can talk to as well as special reports and session summaries. All of these tools are designed to help you tune into the market mood as soon as you possibly can.

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2022-12-21 12:25:59 HYCM Insights: #Q4 2022 #research data from the UK

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2022-12-21 12:20:08 Will the #EURUSD run higher into the year-end?

Don't miss the latest Seasonal Insights with the Chief Market Analyst Kevin Murph

Very often around the end of the year, the market has a seasonal patch of USD weakness. The major currency pairs can benefit from this. The EURUSD pair is inversely correlated with the USD index. So, USD weakness will equate to EURUSD strength.

Over the last 22 years, EURUSD has gained +0.77% between December 22 and December 30. So, will this result in some EURUSD strength again this time of the year?

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